A historic El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific Ocean, with forecasters expecting a strong-to-very-strong event to persist into early 2027. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that this phenomenon could influence weather patterns across the United States, tilting the odds toward a wetter, stormier winter across the South. While no seasonal forecast can predict exactly where or when dangerous weather will strike, this developing event is a timely reminder: preparedness must begin before disaster strikes.
As a physician assistant with a Doctor of Medical Science in Emergency Management and Global Health from the University of Lynchburg in Virginia, I understand that protecting communities requires more than responding to emergencies. It requires identifying risks, coordinating resources and preparing people to act before lives are at stake.
For Austin and Central Texas, that preparation must prioritize flooding.
The City of Austin’s Hazard Mitigation Action Plan identifies flooding as the region’s most serious hazard. Floodwaters threaten homes, businesses, roads and critical infrastructure, and flooding can occur anywhere in the city…not just near creeks or within designated floodplains. According to the city, approximately 75% of flood fatalities in the Greater Austin area are automobile-related.
That statistic should change how we think about emergency preparedness. A familiar road can become deadly in minutes. A routine commute can turn into a rescue operation. And a storm that appears manageable from inside a home can create dangerous conditions just a few miles away.
El Niño does not guarantee flooding in Central Texas, but the prospect of changing rainfall patterns makes this an especially important time to review our readiness.
Fortunately, Austin has a framework for doing so. The city’s Hazard Mitigation Action Plan, developed with emergency-management professionals, local departments and regional partners, evaluates threats and establishes strategies to reduce their impacts. Updated on a five-year cycle, the plan identifies priorities ranging from flood-warning systems and stormwater management to public education, floodplain management and infrastructure improvements.
These measures are essential, but preparedness cannot rest with government agencies alone.
Residents should know their flood risk, monitor weather alerts and identify safe routes before severe weather arrives. Austin’s ATXfloods resources and the Lower Colorado River Authority’s Hydromet system can help people track conditions and make informed decisions. Families should also discuss emergency communication plans, identify meeting places and keep essential supplies and medications accessible.
One rule deserves particular emphasis: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Never drive through floodwater or around a barricade. Water can conceal damaged pavement, and even relatively shallow moving water can sweep a vehicle away. If a roadway is flooded, find another route.
Preparedness also requires coordination. Hospitals, emergency medical services, public health officials, first responders and emergency-management agencies must be ready to work together when a disaster overwhelms ordinary resources. Regional organizations such as the Capital Area Trauma Regional Advisory Council help strengthen these connections across the health care and emergency-response systems.
Local leaders, meanwhile, should continue investing in early-warning technology, drainage improvements, public education and resilient infrastructure. Plans must be reviewed, practiced and updated as communities grow and risks change. A mitigation plan is valuable only when its priorities translate into action.
The coming El Niño offers a reason to take these responsibilities seriously—not to panic, but to prepare. We cannot control ocean temperatures or prevent every storm. We can, however, reduce vulnerability, improve coordination and make decisions that save lives.
Disasters may arrive with little warning. Our preparation should not.
Jessie Hockett, DMSc, PA-C, is a board-certified physician associate licensed in Texas and Colorado. She is disaster medicine trained with a doctoral fellowship with the International Board of Disaster Medicine. Jessie earned her Doctor of Medical Science in Emergency Management and Global Health from the University of Lynchburg in Virginia, and has a Master of Science in Physician Assistant Studies from Pacific University. She also holds a Bachelor of Science from the University of Southern California. She is FEMA-trained and active on her local Hospital Emergency Response Team.